A Trump storm cometh for the ICC

A Trump storm cometh for the ICC
By ROBBIE GRAMER and ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL | 11/21/2024 04:03 PM EST
With help from Phelim Kine
Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric
The Trump world has a message for the International Criminal Court: Brace for impact.
Top Republican officials lashed out at the ICC with a mixture of fury and threats after it
issued arrest warrants today for top Israeli officials over the war in Gaza, giving clear
indications that DONALD TRUMP will play hardball with the global court once he enters
office.
“The ICC has no credibility and these allegations have been refuted by the U.S.
government,” said Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.), Trump’s incoming national security
adviser, in a post on X. “Israel has lawfully defended its people & borders from genocidal
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terrorists. You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC & UN come
January.”
Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) lashed out in a post of his own at the ICC and its top
prosecutor, KARIM KHAN. “The ICC is a kangaroo court and Karim Khan is a deranged
fanatic. Woe to him and anyone who tries to enforce these outlaw warrants,” he said.
While the U.S. isn’t a party to the ICC, it has at times partnered with the international
tribunal to investigate war crimes around the world. So what would Trump’s reaction to the
ICC look like once he’s in office? While Trump himself hasn’t (yet) responded to the ICC
news, Republicans have plans.
U.S. cooperation on ICC investigations into Russian war crimes in Ukraine, for example,
may come to a screeching halt.
“While I supported the work the ICC was doing to prosecute Putin for his war crimes in
Ukraine, I can no longer support an organization that has blatantly chosen to disregard its
mandate,” said Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), the incoming chair of the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee.
Then, expect sanctions. Risch has pushed to advance sanctions against ICC officials in
response to the court’s decision to advance cases against Israeli Prime Minister
BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and former Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT. That bill
has turned into a huge political headache and source of fierce impasse and infighting
within the SFRC between Democrats and Republicans.
“His bill will absolutely be a priority next Congress if Biden or Schumer don’t act sooner,” a
Republican Senate aide said, referring to Democratic Senate Majority Leader CHUCK
SCHUMER. The aide was granted anonymity to discuss the matter candidly.
U.S. allies in Europe, already bracing for new tensions with Washington under Trump, are
also in an awkward spot now. The ICC indictments against Netanyahu and Gallant mean
that both of them could face arrest if they travel to any of the 120 countries party to the
founding treaty of the ICC. (Israel also isn’t a member). That includes key U.S. allies such
as the United Kingdom, France and the Netherlands, where the ICC is headquartered.
Already, the Dutch government said it would adhere to the ICC ruling and arrest Israeli
officials if they came to the Netherlands.
This could lead to even more tensions between Washington and its European allies once
Trump enters office, as if there weren’t already enough.
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T H E I N B O X
NOT AN ICBM AFTER ALL: Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN confirmed that its
military fired a new ballistic missile against Ukraine for the very first time, rebutting claims
from Kyiv they had used an intercontinental ballistic missile.
On state television, Putin later said that the strike was in response to the U.S. and U.K.
decisions to lift usage restrictions on the use of donated missiles they’ve provided. Russia
had tested a new kind of hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile against a Ukrainian
military facility, he said, warning that the war “has acquired elements of a global
character.”
Pentagon spokesperson SABRINA SINGH told reporters today that the weapon Russia
fired was indeed an experimental medium-range ballistic missile. She also confirmed
reports that Russia had given the U.S. advanced notice it was going to fire the new missile.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy initially claimed that the missile, which was part of a volley
of strikes against the city of Dnipro, belonged to a new class of missile not used before
through the course of the war. “All the parameters — speed, altitude — match those of an
intercontinental ballistic missile,” he said. “All expert evaluations are underway.”
Russia initially evaded talk of the strike — though not in the slickest way. Foreign Ministry
spokesperson MARIA ZAKHAROVA was phoned during a live briefing and told not to
comment on the reports; the contents of the call were audible from the microphone.
DON’T MESS WITH TEXAS: Texas Gov. GREG ABBOTT is positioning himself as the
country’s most prominent state-level China hawk, our own PHELIM KINE writes in.
In a letter published today, Abbott barred state agencies from making “any new
investments of state funds in China” and directed them to “divest at the first available
opportunity” any state cash currently in Chinese investment funds. That aims to reduce
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“instability and financial risk” linked to China’s “belligerent actions across the
Southeastern Pacific region and the world,” Abbott said in a statement.
That follows a trio of China-targeted executive orders Abbott signed this week preventing
“transnational repression” of Texans, hardening the state’s information security systems
from Chinese hackers and protecting “critical infrastructure” from cyberattacks.
They’re the latest in a series of measures by states over the past two years to confront
concerns about the security and economic risks posed by rising U.S.-China tensions. Those
include state bans on land sales to Chinese entities and legislation requiring state-level
“stress tests” to assess the local impact of war across the Taiwan Strait. State pension fund
managers have begun pulling their cash from Chinese investment funds to avoid possible
losses in the event of conflict with Beijing over Taiwan or in the South China Sea.
A CONSERVATIVE RUSSIA STRATEGY: A group of conservative policymakers and
former Trump administration officials is making the case that any strategy to counter
Russia has to go beyond the war in Ukraine.
In a collection of essays prepared by the McCain Institute and the conservative Vandenberg
Coalition think tank, the eight authors argue the U.S. needs to, among other things, address
Russian cyberattacks; thwart Russian and Chinese influence in Latin American and other
regions; shift existing sanctions policy to a more comprehensive approach; improve U.S.
defensive capabilities; and ensure Russia faces lasting consequences for invading Ukraine.
The authors include former Deputy Secretary of State and Special Representative for North
Korea STEPHEN BIEGUN, former Trump national security council senior director for
resilience BRIAN CAVANAUGH, former State Department director of policy planning
staff PETER BERKOWITZ and retired Rear Adm. MARK MONTGOMERY.
The essays give a window into the menu of options before the incoming Trump
administration as it seeks to counter Russia and project American strength around the
world. And it highlights some of the policy considerations in the minds of potential Trump
appointees, including Cavanaugh, who could be up for jobs in the next administration.
IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top
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who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at
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@RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil.
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While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24,
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@johnnysaks130
T R A N S I T I O N 2 0 2 4
GOP GABBARD CAT FIGHT: Allies of former Hawaii member of Congress TULSI
GABBARD are rushing to her defense after former U.N. Ambassador NIKKI HALEY
assailed Trump’s nominee to be director of national intelligence earlier this week.
Trump’s incoming communications director STEVEN CHEUNG shared a post from
Republican strategist ANDREW SURABIAN on Wednesday slamming Haley for calling
Gabbard “a Russian, Iranian, Syrian, Chinese sympathizer.”
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“Tulsi Gabbard is a combat veteran who saw the devastation caused by [the] stupid wars
championed by Nikki Haley firsthand. Tulsi served our country in the Army with honor,”
Surabian wrote. “The only people Nikki Haley ever served are the donors & lobbyists who
funded her failed political career.”
The pile-on on Haley, which included responses from Trump supporters like former Fox
News host MEGYN KELLY, speaks to the continued bad blood between the Haley and
Trump camps and to the unease even some Republicans feel about Gabbard’s opinions
about U.S. adversaries like Russia, China and Iran.
WHITAKER WHO? Trump’s pick to be the U.S. ambassador to NATO, former Acting
Attorney General MATTHEW WHITAKER, is unknown in Brussels. But NATO officials
are just glad it isn’t worse, as Robbie and our own JACK DETSCH report.
Whitaker, a Trump loyalist, has no foreign policy experience. But current and former
NATO officials say they’re relieved Trump actually will name an ambassador to the alliance.
And the relationship might work to the alliance’s advantage.
“If we are forced to pick, we’ll take the guy who doesn’t know much about NATO but
Trump will actually pick up the phone for,” said one European official. “We’ll take what we
can get.”
Democracy is facing a multi-front attack on nearly every continent.
At the Halifax International Security Forum, senior military officers
and thought leaders will have to choose whether to stand together
against these challenges or go down the path of division. Follow the
proceedings here.
K E Y S T R O K E S
CHINA COMMITTEE CAMERA QUERIES: A Chinese surveillance giant banned for alleged
human rights abuses may have found a lucrative backdoor into the U.S. market — and the
House’s top China hawks say it’s hiding in plain sight, as we reported in Morning
Cybersecurity this morning (for Pros!).
In a letter to FCC Chair JESSICA ROSENWORCEL shared first with Robbie, House
China committee leaders JOHN MOOLENAAR (R-Mich.) and RAJA
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KRISHNAMOORTHI (D-Ill.) suggest Zhejiang Dahua Technology attempted a
calculated maneuver to potentially skirt federal blacklists — and they now want a full
accounting of it.
The lawmakers argue in the letter that Dahua’s recent sale of its U.S. subsidiary to Luminys
Systems (a unit of Taiwan-headquartered company Foxlink) represents a sophisticated
attempt to circumvent U.S. federal blacklists that bar the company from selling surveillance
equipment to U.S. government agencies. Dahua, a surveillance tech giant, was blacklisted
for its role in Xinjiang’s human rights abuses.
The FCC wields significant power to dismantle this sort of alleged corporate shell. With the
ability to revoke equipment authorizations, block product importation and levy massive
fines, the agency could effectively neutralize Dahua’s alleged attempted end-run. Dahua’s
corporate headquarters did not respond to a request for comment.
T H E C O M P L E X
HEGSETH’S HILL ADVENTURES: Defense Secretary nominee PETE HEGSETH is on
Capitol Hill today, as he seeks to reassure lawmakers that he is the right man to lead the
nation’s armed forces.
Some lawmakers have been wary of Hegseth’s inexperience and the allegations against him
of sexual harassment and assault. The Fox News host and veteran met with the top
Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, Sen. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.)
and Sen. BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.), today, along with other key Senate Republicans.
Vice President-elect JD VANCE accompanied Hegseth to the meetings.
But his jaunt to the Capitol follows the release of police records around a 2017 incident
where Hegseth was accused of sexually assaulting a woman at a California hotel.
Asked about the accusation on Capitol Hill, Hegseth told reporters: “ I have — ah — as far
as the media is concerned, it’s very simple. The matter was fully investigated, and I was
completely cleared, and that’s where I’m gonna leave it.”
O N T H E H I L L
HOMELAND HEARINGS HOOKY: FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY and Secretary
of Homeland Security ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS were scheduled to testify before the
House and Senate Homeland Security committees this week about the “threats to the
homeland.”
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But at the last minute, they pulled out of both hearings. Unsurprisingly, the top lawmakers
on the panels are miffed.
Senate Homeland Security Committee Chair GARY PETERS (D-Mich.) said in a
statement that their “refusal to speak publicly about their departments’ efforts to address
the threats our nation faces robs Americans of critical information. The American people
deserve transparency and accountability on these issues.”
Kentucky Sen. RAND PAUL, the top Republican on the panel, went further, writing on X:
“The American people deserve to hold these officials accountable for their actions under
the Biden Administration.”
Want to know what’s really happening with Congress’s make-orbreak spending fights? Get daily insider analysis of Hill negotiations,
funding deadlines, and breaking developments—free in your inbox
with Inside Congress. Subscribe now.
B R O A D S I D E S
TAKING ON KLEPTOCRATS: British Foreign Secretary DAVID LAMMY announced
today that the U.K. will target foreign governments and oligarchs’ purchases of property
with new sanctions, homing in on a growing class of elites from Russia and other countries
that have used British real estate to evade sanctions.
In a video posted to X, Lammy said that “corrupt actors like these loot wealth from their
countries and their fellow citizens to line their own pockets, fueling wars and other security
threats in the U.K. and overseas, wealth that could be supporting education, health care
and infrastructure, the very building blocks of stability and economic growth.”
London real estate has become a prime tool in the arsenal of foreign governments and
oligarchs looking to squirrel away money and evade international sanctions. That includes
Russian oligarchs looking to evade the long-arm of Western sanctions related to the war in
Ukraine. These transactions have not only driven up housing costs, but also served as a
vehicle for money laundering and have been a sore spot for successive British governments.
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T R A N S I T I O N S
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — Adm. MIKE MULLEN (Ret.), the former chair of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff, has been named as the new chair of the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition’s
National Advisory Council.
— Leaving your job in response to the election? Considering a career change? Let us know.
Email your news to [email protected] and [email protected]
W H AT TO R E A D
— TANYA GOUDSOUZIAN and MURAT ASLAN, Responsible Statecraft: Is
Turkey’s big break with Israel for real?
— MATTHEW KASSEL, Jewish Insider: Real estate mogul Witkoff is Trump’s
unorthodox choice to serve as his Middle East envoy
— HANNA ROSIN, The Atlantic: What Pete Hegseth’s nomination is really about
TO M O R R O W TO D AY
— Asia Society Policy Institute, 9 a.m.: Post-election wrap-up: Asia policy in Trump’s
second term
— Hudson Institute, 9 a.m.: Technology and maritime security cooperation between
NATO and the Indo-Pacific
— Brookings Institution, 9 a.m.: The future of alliances, partnerships, and the IndoPacific regional order
— Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: The future of U.S. and German policy toward Beijing
— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: Harnessing progress:
Strengthening the Indo-Pacific through alliances and partnerships
— Institute of World Politics, 4 p.m.: A lecture on “Churchill, Bolshevism, and
Containment”
Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who deserves to be dragged to The Hague for her
actions.
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Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who would be a capable international war
crimes prosecutor.
Correction: Wednesday’s newsletter misstated the mission of a Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace task force. It will review the future of non-proliferation.