President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in an election in which abortion rights were a heavy focus raises major questions about what might come next for abortion access in the U.S.
During the final stages of his campaign, Trump said he thought states should determine their own abortion policies. But his position on the issue has varied widely — in a March interview, he signaled support for a nationwide ban on abortions after 15 weeks’ gestation, and as president, he supported a House bill that would have banned abortion nationwide after 20 weeks. During his 2016 campaign, Trump pledged to appoint Supreme Court justices who could help overturn Roe v. Wade. As president, he accomplished that goal and has at times boasted about it.
Meanwhile, Vice President-elect JD Vance has suggested that he would support a national law limiting abortion. More recently, he adopted Trump’s stance of letting states decide.
The Trump campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Because of those inconsistencies, policy experts said, there’s no clear road map for the future of abortion in a second Trump administration — though they offered some theories.
A national abortion ban, if approved by Congress, would override state-level protections, including the seven ballot measures that passed Tuesday. But even if Republicans win control of the House, as well, that kind of federal restriction is unlikely, four experts said. Trump has said he wouldn’t sign such a ban. (He has declined to say, however, whether he would veto one if it landed on his desk.)
More likely, experts suggested, are efforts to restrict access to abortion pills, especially when they are administered through telehealth or delivered by mail. Medication abortions accounted for 63% of all abortions in the country last year, according to a March study by the Guttmacher Institute, a research organization that supports abortion access.
“The threats to medication abortion is what we’re going to be watching most closely, especially in the first months and year of his administration,” said Amy Friedrich-Karnik, director for federal policy at the Guttmacher Institute.
Tuesday’s election results signaled continuing public support for abortion rights overall. Ballot measures to protect abortion access passed in seven of 10 states; in Arizona and Missouri, those victories overturned existing restrictions, while the five other states that passed such initiatives didn’t previously restrict abortion.
In Florida, an abortion-rights measure got 57% of the vote but failed because state law required at least 60%. South Dakota and Nebraska, meanwhile, were the first two states since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision in 2022 where majorities of voters rejected proposed constitutional amendments to protect abortion access. (An opposing ballot initiative in Nebraska, which passed, may have confused some voters there, Friedrich-Karnik said.)